The New Planning Challenge: Conquering Supply Variability

For most of my career leading global operations at manufacturers like Mativ and Apex Tool Group, demand was the dragon we chased. It was unpredictable, ever-changing, and central to every planning discussion. Now, with the added perspective of having served as a Gartner supply chain analyst, I’ve seen just how widespread and persistent this challenge is across industries.

But the world has changed.

Supply variability has emerged as the more dangerous beast: chaotic, external, and increasingly disruptive. Unlike demand, which can often be influenced internally, supply disruptions are driven by forces far beyond our control: geopolitical tension, port congestion, raw material shortages, labor disputes, tariffs, and extreme weather.

These aren't isolated events. They're systemic, and they've exposed cracks in even the most mature supply chain planning processes. As Ernest Nicolas eloquently noted in his recent Black Swan blog, we're now navigating a world where rare events are becoming routine, and our planning systems must rise to meet that reality.

From Optimization to Firefighting

Supply variability has redefined what it means to plan. Here are just a few of the recent disruptions that brought this challenge into full view:

• Tariffs and Trade Wars: The recent tariffs and trade conflict forced companies to shift supply bases rapidly, which is something that doesn't happen overnight.

• Port Strikes: The 2022 and 2024 West Coast dockworker strikes stalled shipments for weeks. Inventory sat offshore, with no visibility or reliable ETAs.

• Natural Disasters: In 2023, flooding in Italy shut down key auto component manufacturers, rippling through global supply chains.

• Pandemic Ripples: The aftershocks of COVID-19 are still being felt through long lead times, labor gaps, and raw material inconsistencies.

These are not demand problems. They're supply-side shocks. And they've proven that legacy planning systems are no match for this new level of unpredictability.

Why Legacy Planning Systems Can't Keep Up

Most traditional planning systems and processes were built in an era of stability. They assume fixed suppliers, consistent lead times, and modest disruption. They're great at linear optimization but struggle when the world stops behaving linearly.

Take a port strike, for example. A legacy system may continue showing a 10-day lead time for inbound goods because that's what the average says. It won't know if the ship is stuck offshore. It won't suggest rerouting. It won't model business impacts or recovery scenarios.

That's why companies are turning to ketteQ.

A Smarter, More Adaptive Approach

At ketteQ, we've built an adaptive planning platform for real-world volatility. Our agentic AI solver engine, PolymatiQ™, enables supply chain teams to plan dynamically, not statically.

Here's how:

• Scenario Simulation at Scale: Instead of relying on a single plan, ketteQ runs autonomously thousands of simulations to explore the best recovery paths based on cost, service level, and business impact.

• Dynamic Sourcing & Routing: When disruption hits, the platform can evaluate alternate suppliers, plants, and shipping lanes with complete visibility into risk and timing.

• AI-Driven Lead Time Adjustments: Lead times aren't fixed anymore. ketteQ uses real-time data to adjust expectations based on congestion, customs delays, and other disruptions.

• Salesforce-Native Visibility: Because we're built on Salesforce, every department, sales, service, and operations, sees the same disruption, the same plan, at the same time.

Real Results: The Johnson Controls Story

One of our customers, Johnson Controls (JCI), faced a significant challenge when a key component supplier fell. They might not have known the full impact of a legacy system until service orders started missing delivery windows.

But with ketteQ, JCI simulated dozens of recovery options in hours. They shifted sourcing, rebalanced inventory, rerouted shipments, and adjusted service-level commitments — before disruption cascaded through the business.

The result?

Double-digit growth in their parts business, lower inventory, and faster fulfillment across their global service network.

That's the power of adaptive planning in action.

Key Takeaways

If your supply chain planning tools still assume stable suppliers, fixed lead times, and linear workflows, you're planning for a world that no longer exists.

Supply variability is the new norm. It's messy, fast-moving, and often uncontrollable. But it doesn't have to be unmanageable.

With the right tools and mindset, you can turn volatility into a competitive advantage.

At ketteQ, we're not tweaking yesterday's plan. We're enabling tomorrow's decisions — today and at scale.

Let's build supply chains that are ready for anything.